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Friday, December 2, 2011

Week 13: T-Ward's Fantasy Football Advice

By: Tyler Ward

I've been wanting to do this all year, but I always forgot to do it and I guess I was just lazy.

But anyway, I love fantasy football. I currently have six teams, all of which are in the top 3 in every league. I plan to create my own league next season, so send me an e-mail at tylersportsguy@yahoo.com if any of ya'll will be interested in it. And for those who will be, I just want people who will seriously play (i.e. for this season, there is a team in one of my leagues that still has Kenny Britt, Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning starting). I find it exceedingly annoying, so if you're serious about it and want to play, just let me know.

Okay, but anyway, I'm going to do my best Matthew Berry impression (Berry is a "fantasy guru for ESPN.com).

Players you need to start:

QB Tom Brady, New England - Brady will be facing a Colts defense that has been downright horrible. Their lone bright spot has been linebacker Pat Angerer, who leads the NFL in tackles. The Colts are 29th in overall defense (17th in passing, 31st in rushing). The Colts' secondary is currently giving up about 239 yards per game and opposing quarterbacks have a 108.6 rating against them. Quarterbacks have also thrown 19 touchdowns against the secondary, compared to just five interceptions.

I'm predicting Brady will have a field day against the Colts and will easily surpass the 300-yard mark with three or four touchdowns. The Colts will be lucky to pick him off once and I don't see them doing that. Start Brady.

QB Eli Manning, New York  - The younger Manning will be facing the undefeated Packers this weekend, but the Packers are 31st in pass defense. It's hard to imagine that an 11-0 team is ranked so low in that category, but it is possible. Given good weather conditions, Manning should throw for over 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns. However, the Packers' secondary has picked off opposing quarterbacks 22 times, compared to just 19 touchdowns (78.0 QB rating).

With Manning's past history, he should get intercepted once or twice in this contest, but he should also have a field day against Charles Woodson and Co. At this point, you're really not going to find a better option, as Manning should get you 15-17 points in most leagues.

QB Cam Newton, Carolina - Newton and the Panthers will be facing off against the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, who rank 27th in pass defense and 30th against the run. As we've seen all year, Newton has been the team's top rusher so it is plausible and almost a given that Newton will get a rushing touchdown or two.

He should also eclipse the 300-yard mark and if not, he will definitely cross the 250-yard plateau. I think this will be a laughable game, as the Panthers should win the game easily. Look for Newton to get you at least 20 points in most standard leagues.

RB Frank Gore, San Francisco - The 9-2 49ers will face off against the St. Louis Rams this weekend, who rank dead last against the run. Gore has consistently been a top-10 fantasy back all season long and he should explode against a horrendous, but talented Rams defense.

Gore has carried the ball 203 times this season for 909 yards (4.5 average). He has also added five rushing touchdowns and he should increase that number on Sunday.

This is also the same Rams defense that gave up a Cowboys rushing record 253 yards to rookie DeMarco Murray, who was also making his first NFL start. And yes, you read that right - a Cowboys franchise record; also better output that some of the best backs in history such as Emmitt Smith and Tony Dorsett. Cardinals running back Beanie Wells also rushed for 228 yards and a touchdown against this defense last week.

Even though he has been struggling lately, I'm looking for Gore to rush for at least 100 yards and a touchdown against the lowly Rams defense. Gore has rushed for just 127 yards in the last three games but a game against this defense could get him back on track. In fact, I'll project what I think he'll do: 21 carries, 137 yards and two touchdowns. Start Gore.

RB Ray Rice, Baltimore - The Browns are currently 29th against the run and it doesn't help that they will be playing the Ravens this week, who have one of the best running backs in the NFL.

Rice should have a great game against the Browns, as the Ravens should easily roll over them by a couple touchdowns. Look for Rice to run for over 75 yards and a touchdown or two, and also surpass the 50-yard receiving mark.

I'm looking for Rice to get at least 18 points this week against Pat Shurmur's Cleveland Browns.

RB LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay - It is unknown thus far if Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman will play this weekend against the Panthers, and if he doesn't, they are almost sure to run the ball at least 25-30 times. If he doesn't play, I really don't see backup Josh Johnson passing the ball more than 20 times. That's why I'd start Blount because he will get a bunch of carries regardless.

The Panthers are currently 28th in rush defense and Blount has been on fire as of late. In fact, Blount had arguably one of the best plays in this NFL season a few weeks ago against the Packers as he barreled over half of the Packers' defense. I'm looking for Blount to be too powerful this week against the Panthers, who have struggled all year against the run.

Carolina is one of the worst tackling teams and I'm sure they'll miss quite a few tackles on Blount, as he leads the Buccaneers rushing attack. Watch for Blount to at least cross the 80-yard mark and a touchdown. Freeman has also been feeding him the ball through the air a bit lately, so he could add another 20 to 30 yards receiving.

Blount will at least get you 15 points in most standard leagues.

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England - It will be an offensive attack on the 0-11 Colts, as they are currently 31st defensively against the run.

Green-Ellis and Co. should have a great game against a Colts defense that has been despicable all season long.

The Colts' run defense is currently allowing over 150 rushing yards per game and has also given up fifteen rushing touchdowns. If the Patriots can get the ball inside the 10-yard line, "The Law Firm" should be able to easily run the ball into the end zone.

There is no doubt that the Patriots will win this game (and I'm a Colts fan saying this, too) and it will be mainly because of Tom Brady and Green-Ellis. The latter should be able to cross the 75-yard plateau and score a touchdown.

WR Wes Welker, New England - Again, they'll be playing the Colts and if Brady has a big day, Welker will do the same.

WR Laurent Robinson, Dallas - It is unclear if Miles Austin will play this week, but even if he does, he will likely just ease himself back in. Robinson has been quarterback Tony Romo's favorite target in the last five weeks, as Robinson has caught all seven of his touchdowns in that span.

The Cowboys will travel to Arizona this weekend to play the Cardinals, who have given up 2,924 receiving yards this season to their opponents.

In standard leagues, Robinson has scored 16.3, 9.2, 19.3, 9.4 and 19.9 points in the last five weeks, respectively. After trading cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to the Eagles in the offseason, the Cardinals' secondary has struggled against the pass and Romo will more than likely take advantage of that fault.

I'm looking for Robinson to at least go over 60 yards and catch a touchdown in this game. Start Robinson.

WR Victor Cruz, New York - Cruz has been the most consistent Giants receiver all season long and he will likely continue that heading into this week against the Green Bay Packers.

Cruz had a monster game against the Saints last week on Monday Night Football, as he caught nine passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns.

He currently lead the Giants with 55 receptions for 957 yards and seven touchdowns. Cruz has also had four 100-yard games, including the last two weeks (128 and 157, respectively).

The Packers are currently 31st in pass defense and if Manning has a good game, Cruz should be able to benefit from that as well. Cruz should be able to get at least 12 points in standard fantasy leagues.

TE Rob Gronkowski, New England - See Welker, Wes.

Players you should take a look at:

- QB Matt Stafford, Detroit (at New Orleans)
- QB Carson Palmer, Oakland (at Miami)
- QB Tim Tebow, Denver (at Minnesota)
- RB Michael Bush, Oakland (at Miami)
- RB Reggie Bush, Miami (vs. Oakland)
- RB Matt Forte, Chicago (vs. Kansas City)
- RB Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. San Diego)
- WR Michael Crabtree, San Francisco (vs. St. Louis)
- WR Steve Smith, Carolina (at Tampa Bay)
- WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego (at Jacksonville)
- WR Torrey Smith, Baltimore (at Cleveland)
- WR Johnny Knox, Chicago (vs. Kansas City)
- TE Jason Witten, Dallas (at Arizona)
- TE Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (at New Orleans)
- TE Jimmy Graham, New Orleans (vs. Detroit)