With the 10th overall selection in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert.
Twelve games through his rookie season, Gabbert has seemed to be a disappointment - especially when you look around and see how well fellow rookie quarterbacks Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are flourishing.
However, Gabbert could do better if he weren't in an offensive system led by offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Koetter is a very conservative coordinator, as he believes in the philosophy of running the ball down the opponent's throat - Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew is currently leading the league in carries.
His play-calling often leads to Gabbert throwing small dink-and-dunk passes, which rarely go over ten yards. This system has been very easy to suspect and defenses have caught on to their offense, which makes these small gains very easy to defend.
Gabbert hasn't been able to get in the groove at all this season and his stats show that as well.
The former Missouri quarterback has completed just 147 of 297 passes (49.5%), which is the lowest in the league for starting quarterbacks. He has thrown for just 1,566 yards in eleven games, an average of a paltry 142.4 yards per game.
Gabbert has also thrown just eight touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year, with his first multiple-touchdown game coming against the Chargers on Monday night.
His seven interceptions show that he is very mature with the football and rarely puts the Jaguars offense in a bad position. However, Gabbert has shown that his mechanics are very poor, as he often fails to hit wide open receivers when they are five or more yards away from the scrimmage line.It also doesn't help that Gabbert has arguably the worst receiving corps in the entire league.
Mike Thomas, the team's No. 1 receiver, is not a legitimate top receiver and he is at best, a No. 2 option. Thomas could fit best possibly as a slot receiver, but the corps is so bad that he is their first option.
Other receivers feature Jason Hill, Jarrett Dillard, Kassim Osgood, Chastin West, Cecil Shorts III and the newly-acquired Taylor Price, who they got off waivers from the New England Patriots. Clearly, the Jaguars are going to need to make some changes in the receiving corps if they want Gabbert to become their franchise quarterback.
Their offense also features tight end Marcedes Lewis, who is arguably having the worst season since his rookie season in 2006. Lewis' receiving numbers have gone up every year since he was drafted, but they have suffered drastically with Gabbert leading the team. Over the last few seasons, the former UCLA standout has been the Jaguars' best option, but not this year.
Lewis has caught just 30 passes for 308 yards and zero touchdowns this season after having receiving numbers of 129, 391, 489, 518 and 700, respectively. If Lewis ends the season with no touchdowns, it will be the first time in his career that he fails to haul in a touchdown in his career - Lewis caught a career-high ten touchdowns last season with David Garrard as the quarterback.
If the Jaguars' front office wants Gabbert to succeed, they need to give him a legitimate top receiver and they should look in the draft for one, such as South Carolina's Alshon Jeffery or Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon.
But for now, with the options Gabbert has, he will never become the quarterback they want him to be and he will fall into mediocrity and could fall into the same category as Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, JaMarcus Russell and so on.
The front office may also need to make a decision regarding Koetter, the team's offensive coordinator. The team relies too heavily on the run and with such a high workload, Jones-Drew will eventually get burned out. Jones-Drew cannot keep putting up a hefty amount of carries season after season. It's just not healthy and it will ruin a rather solid career.
Clearly, the Jaguars are a run-first offense and it will continue to be that way if they fail to surround Gabbert with proven receivers - especially ones that can get open down field.The Jaguars' offensive plans typically calls for short passes, with Gabbert throwing a 20+ yard pass once or twice per game. It's hard to win games when a quarterback doesn't go deep a few times during a contest.
It will take a lot of effort and moves for Gabbert to succeed with the Jaguars and they may just end it prematurely - for instance, the Jaguars could take a quarterback in the first round of next year's draft such as Baylor's Robert Griffin III, USC's Matt Barkley, or Oklahoma's Landry Jones.
This scenario will be just like the Panthers last season when they drafted Jimmy Clausen in the second round, only to draft Cam Newton with the first overall pick this year. It could happen and Gabbert may not be a Jaguar next season.
But if they plan to stick with Gabbert, changes will have to be made to better suit his talents.
And for now, I really don't see them making any major moves and Gabbert will eventually turn out to be a mediocre starting quarterback. He will likely not turn into the franchise quarterback they had hoped for when they took him with the tenth overall selection in last year's draft.
